德国人

by 作者: fred_939

09. March 2012 · Comments Off on 德国人 · Column 专栏: Uncategories · Tags: , ,

在帝国理工里,我有三个德国好朋友。

昨天,我和其中的两个,Franziska和 Sandro到皇家机械学院的咖啡厅去喝咖啡。

他们是那种充满活力的典型的德国人,很聪明,但是做作业却不擅长。

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我先帮他们写完了作业,然后坐在沙发上,聊了起来。

聊聊在伦敦的生活,聊一聊学院,聊一聊课程。 然后我突然想到了一个问题,我问过很多人,我们学院各个国家的。

我告诉他们,根据我的分析以及收集到的资料来看,今年中东不会太平。 伊朗会出问题。美国不太可能打,因为有选举,并且赤字过大,没钱来打。 但是以色列就难说了。以色列已经掌握了部分伊朗防空武器的核心密码。并且以色列那么聪明,技术又那么先进,来个外科手术式战役来消灭伊朗的核设施不成问题。

然后我和他们讲了瑞银的分析:

情景1:欧盟的制裁7月1日生效,导致市场损失60万桶/天。在这一情景下,布伦特油价将上升至大约130美元/桶,这一影响可能更小,因为禁运措施给予一些依赖伊朗石油的国家免除许可,例如意大利和希腊。

情景2:欧盟制裁完全实施,加上伊朗其他消费国削减的10%。在这种情况下,布伦特油价将上升至138美元/桶。

情景3:伊朗石油出口被完全暂停,也许是由于以色列的空袭。那么全球石油供给将损失250万桶/天,布伦特油价将上升至205美元/桶左右。

情景4:伊朗石油生产被彻底关闭。这要求某种形式的军事行动以及大范围的国内暴动。在这种情况下,世界石油供给将损失400万桶/天,布伦特原油价格将高至270美元/桶。

最后我告诉他们,关键之处在于,全球供需非常紧张,库存没有增加。所以一旦发生战事,不会有库存来补充损失的供给。

严谨的德国人想了想,没有找到有漏洞, 然后我继续对他们说: 要买入石油股,或者能源股。

然后他们就严肃了。 对我说,你已经像一个专业的分析员了,可是,不应该买,不应该发战争的财。如果我们买了石油股,我们就在祈祷战争的到来了。

我反驳道:我们的交易行为并不会对战争是否发生产生任何影响。不是因为我们买了股票,所以就发生了战争。

Sandro: 你还是考虑一下别得投资机会吧。 我是不会买的。

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